Population Killa Saifullah

Since independence, four population censuses have been conducted: in 1951, 1961, 1972 and 1981. The new census was due in 1991 but due to political forces it could not be executed. The data provided by previous censuses do not present a consistent trend. The Planning Commission indicated under-enumeration of population in the 1961 census by 7.5 percent. Usually male enumerators are assigned to interview the respondents, male members of the household in most cases. This may give rise to the issue of invisibility of females in the census data, specially in the productive sector. Female family members are usually less reported due to a social desirability factor (preference for male children). Female participation in the productive sector is also ignored. The enumerators of the census, as well as the supervisory officials, were government employees working according to fixed routines, whilst not being very careful about the validity of the data. Supervision has also been ineffective and manipulation of the census data has been a common practice. Keeping in view all the facts, reliability of all these censuses can be questioned.

 

 

1951

1961

1972

1981

1995 (projected)

Population

29,200

38,078

74,876

152,134

234,534

M/F ratio

n/a

n/a

n/a

1.2

n/a

Population Density

2.7

3.4

6.5

13.1

20.1

No. of Households

n/a

n/a

n/a

16,234

n/a

No. of Female Headed Households

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Average Household Size

n/a

n/a

n/a

8.5

n/a

Percentage under 15 years

n/a

n/a

n/a

51.7

n/a

Urban Population

0

2,772

3,529

0

0

M/F ratio Urban

-

n/a

n/a

-

-

Rural Population

29,200

35,306

71,347

152,134

234,533

M/F ratio Rural

n/a

n/a

n/a

1.2

n/a

Urban Population (%)

0

7.3

4.7

0

0

Source:

1981 District Census Report of Zhob, NIPS and Population of Mauzas 1951-81 Censuses: Zhob District

 

 

The population projections (1995), based upon calculations of the National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS), for Killa Saifullah district show a growth rate of 3.1 percent during 1981-95 as compared with 8.2 percent for the inter-censal period 1972-81.

POPULATION BY SEX AND RURAL/URBAN DISTRIBUTION

1998 CENSUS - BALOCHISTAN

Area

Household

Male

Female

Both Sexes

KILLA SAIFULLAH DISTRICT

28,796

101,904

88,825

188,729

Rural

28,796

101,904

88,825

188,729

Urban

-

-

-

-

KILLAH SAIFULLAH TEHSIL

14,513

46,767

39,311

86,078

Rural

14,513

46,767

39,311

86,078

Urban

-

-

-

-

MUSLIM BAGH TEHSIL

10,188

37,303

33,058

70,361

Rural

10,188

37,303

33,058

70,361

Urban

-

-

-

-

LOIBAND SUB-TEHSIL

2,944

14,187

11,542

25,729

Rural

2,944

14,187

11,542

25,729

Urban

-

-

-

-

BADDINI SUB-TEHSIL

1,151

3,647

2,914

6,561

Rural

1,151

3,647

2,914

6,561

Urban

-

-

-

-

 

Population Growth Pattern

The population growth rates for the area of Killa Saifullah district have been inconsistent right from the initial censuses. During the inter-censal period 1951-61 a reasonable growth pattern (2.7%) has been observed while in the next 11 years (1961-72) this rate increased to 6.3 percent. The population growth rate during 1972-81 has been 8.2 percent which indicates an over-enumeration of population. In 1981, the population of Killa Saifullah district – excluding Badinai sub-tehsil – which was eligible to vote constituted 36.3 percent of the total population while in 1997 it is 42.4 percent. It indicates gross discrepancies in population enumeration. On the other hand, the recent rate of growth (3.1%), which has been calculated on the basis of projections of population for 1995, made by NIPS, is absolutely consistent with that of the Pakistan (3.1%). In 1981, total fertility rate in the entire Zhob district – of which Killa Saifullah district was a part – was 8.2. It explains, to some extent, the high growth rate for the district during the inter-censal period 1972-1981 but the highly fluctuating growth trend cannot completely be explained until NIPS assumptions for population projections and other vital population statistics are known. Unfortunately no census has been carried out after the inception of Killa Saifullah district, hence, it is very difficult to comment about population growth trends in the district.

 

Source:

1981 District Census Report of Zhob, NIPS, and Population of Mauzas 1951-81 Censuses: Zhob District

Population Composition

According to 1981 census, the female population slightly outnumbers the male population in the age groups 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49 and 55-59. There is no obvious reason for this surprising trend. One possible reason may be that young girls are often not reported at the time of census as people consider it against the code of honour to tell the names of or details about their young female family members to strangers or enumerators. In this way women become less visible in the population. However, final conclusions can only be drawn after availability of age-specific birth and death rates at the district level.

 

Source:

1981 District Census Report of Zhob

 

As the detailed population figures are not available for Badinai sub-tehsil, it is not possible to comment on the whole district. In the area comprising Muslim Bagh sub-division and Killa Saifullah tehsil, about one third (36.3%) of the total population was eligible to vote (21 years of age and above) while adult population (18 years of age and above) was 42.3 percent. Women of the child bearing age (15-49 years) were 17.8 percent of the total population. Amongst the population of 15 years and above, two third (66.6%) were married, 30.1 percent never married and 3.3 percent were widowers. Divorcee were in negligible numbers (22 only), indicating a highly negative attitude of the people towards divorce.

Household Size

According to the 1981 census, the average household size in the areas comprising Muslim Bagh sub-division and Killa Saifullah tehsil was 8.5.

Dependent Population

These calculations excludes the population of Badinai sub-tehsil as no detailed figures are available for Badinai. According to the 1981 census, majority (51.7%) of the population is dependent, either below the age of 15 or 65 years of age and above. The child dependency (ratio of people under age 15 to those ages 15-64) is 112.6 percent while the old-age dependency (ratio of people age 65 or older to those ages 15-64) is 5.4 percent. An overall age dependency of 118.0 percent is a significant burden on the, ideally, earning population. This situation increases the economic pressure for the families which may result in child labour and malnutrition of both women and children; the most neglected strata of the society.

Rural-Urban Dimensions

The definition of "urban area" has been changing in the various censuses. In 1972, urban areas included Municipal Corporations, Municipal Committees, Cantonment Boards and Town Committees. Other places having a concentrated population of at least 5,000 persons, where the community sense was well developed and the community maintained public utilities, such as roads, street lighting, water supply, sanitary arrangements, etc., were also treated as urban areas. These places were generally centres of trade and commerce with a population being mostly non-agricultural and having a comparatively higher literacy rate. As a special case, a few areas having the mentioned urban characteristics but with a population less than 5,000 persons were also treated as urban. The 1981 census defined the urban locality on the basis of type of local government institutions. All the localities which were either Metropolitan Corporation, Municipal Corporation, Municipal Committee, Town Committee or cantonment at the time of census, were treated as urban. The definition of urban areas in 1961 census is not given in the census reports. This variation and non-availability of the definition of urban area for some censuses has made comparative analysis difficult.

Source:

1951-81 Population of Administrative Units

 

According to 1981 census, not a single locality in Killa Saifullah district was designated as urban. However, the towns of Killa Saifullah and Muslim Bagh were designated as urban localities in 1961 and 1972 censuses. The highest urban population ratio can be observed at the time of 1961 census (7.3%) which decreased to 4.7 percent in 1972. This unprecedented change in proportion of urban population can only be explained in terms of changing definition.

Spatial Population Distribution

In Killa Saifullah, most of the human settlements are located alongside the Quetta-Zhob highway. Although no locality has an official urban status, the towns of Killa Saifullah and Muslim Bagh may be called the only urban areas in the district. Other important localities include Babu China, Kan Mehterzai, Ghut Teza, Ragha Bakalzai, Kazha, Datobah, Rod Jogizai, Tubli, Tanishpah, Ghorizai, Alikhel, Badinai and Kashatoo. In 1981, there were 166 inhabited mauzas/villages. The population of 4 individual mauzas was above 5,000 while 132 had a population less than 1,000. See chapter 7.3 for the spatial distribution of schools all over the district.

Ethnic Composition

The Pushtuns constitute an overwhelming proportion of the population in the district while the remaining include Punjabis, Balochs, Brahvis, Sindhis, Hindko, Saraiki and others. Pushto is spoken in 98.9 percent of the households in the district. Most of the Pushtun population belongs to the Kakar tribe. Kakars living in Killa Saifullah district are divided into two major sub-tribes: Sanzarkhels and Santia. The major branches of Sanzarkhel Kakars in the district include Jogizai, Rahatzai, Sargarhi, Mehterzai, Jalalzai, Musazai, Malaizai, Mardanzai, Akhtarzai, Faqirzai and Allozai while the major branches of Santia Kakars include Mehterzai, Sultanzai, Mullazai and Bakalzai.

Nature and Extent of Migration

The majority of the population is permanently residing in villages. However, nomadic type of intra and inter district migration is practised to some extent in Killa Saifullah. It may also be called seasonal migration as the livestock farming communities of the district migrate to warmer areas in winter. Presently no data are available on the extent of migration in Killa Saifullah district.

 

After political disturbance in Afghanistan, millions of Afghans migrated to various border areas of Pakistan. Although these migrants were given the status of refugees, they, after some period of time, left their camps and spread all over the country. At present no statistics are available about these immigrants. A camp of Afghan refugees was established in Killa Saifullah district near Nasai village. Their unaccounted presence all over the country, and specifically in Balochistan, is one of the major reasons for postponement of the census scheduled in 1991. It is assumed that their presence in Balochistan will artificially increase the population of a specific ethnic group, hence, converting the others into minorities.

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