Population Quetta

Demographic data is essential for realistic development planning. The development programme must take demographic changes in population size, age structure and distribution into account. This is essential for countries experiencing rapid population growth. Indeed, the rate of population growth is one of the most important demographic measures used in planning and it should form the critical basis for many policy and programmatic assumptions.

Kandhari Bazar Quetta.

According to the estimates prepared by NIPS for 1995, the population in Quetta district is 676,941 and it is growing at the rate of 4.2% per annum.

Major abnormalities in the estimates of population have been witnessed. Certain reasons have been put forward to explain this situation. One of the major reasons has been the influx of Afghan refugees during the early 1980’s.

For political and economic benefits (e.g. for allocation of development funds) vested interest groups exaggerate their number. Due to psychological reasons, illiterate persons feel shy to tell the number of female members. In fact, there is a tendency among the rural population to conceal the actual number of females. Moreover, living under a tribal set up, family’s strength is normally gauged by the number of males. There is no proper system to register the birth and death rates, particularly in rural areas. Although Municipal Corporation, Cantonment Board and Union Councils keep such records, the majority of the population has not yet realized the importance of registration.

 It should be kept in mind that there has been no population census since 1981. NIPS have projected population growth on the basis of 4.2% during 1981-995.

However, during this period, rapid rural - urban migration has been witnessed in Quetta, due to push & pull factors. Poverty and the lack of economic opportunities have pushed labour from the rural areas while the attraction of the urban areas (job opportunities and opportunities for education, marriage, the attraction of the bright light, etc.) pulled labourers to the towns.

 Further it should not be forgotten that the influx of Afghan refugees was not limited to their camps in Surkhab, Jungle Pir Alizai and Girdi Jungle. They, due to their economic needs, came to Quetta district in search of jobs and a vast number of them are stil residing in the district.

 The settlement of new housing schemes like Chaman Housing, Jinnah Town, Shahbaz Town, Chiltan Housing, Smungli Housing and Satellite Town around Quetta city is an indicator of the rapid population growth.

 When the above mentioned facts are taken into consideration along with the fact that during 1961 - 1972 and 1972 - 1981 population growth rate in the district was 5.1% and 5.0% respectively. Then there are reasons to believe that the NIPS projection could be underestimated.

POPULATION BY SEX AND RURAL/URBAN DISTRIBUTION

1998 CENSUS - BALOCHISTAN

Population Growth Pattern

The population growth pattern in the district has rapidly changed during the last three decades. According to 1961 population census, the population of the district was 142,070. During 1961 - 1972 and 1972 - 1981 the intercensal increase in population size was 252,380 and 381,566 respectively.

 Birth and death rates are not properly recorded at district level. Although fertility estimates are of less direct importance in development planning than some other parameters, they are a necessary component of good projections. Information on the number of birth is useful in some specific planning context and it is of great importance to countries that wish to reduce their population growth.

 In Quetta district, the birth rate has probably remained high. Estimates of mortality data are essential for establishing health conditions as well as setting requirements and priorities for health programmes and evaluating their progress and effectiveness. Not only the level of mortality, but also the causes of death, the sex and age specific rates, infant mortality and other measures are crucial for effective health planning. Moreover, they are necessary for estimating population growth.

Population Composition

According to the latest available census (1981), the population was composed of :

1. Children below 15 years ( 43.5% )

2. Active population 15-64 years ( 54.3% )

3. Aged population 65 - above ( 2.2 % )

4. Male population ( 55.8% )

5. Female population ( 44.2% )

The urban proportion of population was 74.8% and the sex ratio was 126.

Household Size

Due to shortage of houses and high rents people are forced to live under the joint family system. Vast improvements in the living conditions have been observed. The majority of the households are not headed by a female. There are some households headed by females, particularly in Quetta city. In the absence of a micro survey, it is difficult to ascertain their number.

The census of 1981 defines "A household , as a person or a group of persons living together and eating from the same kitchen and using the same budget, whether or not related to each other". According to the above source, the average number of persons per household was 8.0 with slightly less persons per room. Only 24.8% of the population was fortunate to have a separate room.

According to the census of 1981, the number of persons per room was 2.6 in urban areas, while in rural areas it was 2 persons per room. Twenty percent of the population was fortunate to have a separate room. 77.4% of the households in the district had piped water facility.

Dependent Population

Dependent population includes children below 15 years and above 65 years. The dependency ratio in district Quetta is very high as evident from the 1981 census. There were 43.5% children below the age of 15 years and the population of those above the age of 65 years was 2.2%. It should be kept in mind all women excluding working women to a greater extent are dependent.

It is obvious that the dependency ratio is very high, which is mainly due to a higher level of fertility. It is a very alarming situation having serious implications: The higher the dependency ratio the greater the burden on the society. Although one of the positive effects may be a younger, healthier and more productive labour force at a later stage. The population under 15 years of age constitutes a serious problem in the short run, independent of future changes in fertility pattern. For now, those already born require education at all levels and assistance in the areas of health including nutrition’s for the next 15 years. The child women ratio was 80.1% out of the population of 15 years and above 31.4% were never married. The currently married were 64.9%, the divorcees and widowers were 0.05% and 3.7% respectively. This data is from the census of 1981.

Rural-Urban Dimensions

Almost ¾th of the population is living in urban areas. The percentage of female population out of them was 49.4% while in the rural areas their percentage was 48.2%. (Census 1981).

Spatial Population Distribution

Most of the population lives in urban areas. The population density in 1981 was 144 persons per sq. km. It has increased to 255 in 1995. The villages in district Quetta are generally adjacent to each other and they normally range from 30 to 300 households.

There are 52 Mauzas in Quetta district.

Ethnic Composition

Quetta district is a multi-lingual area. Urdu, Punjabi, Pushto, Sindi, Balochi, Brahui, Hindko Siraiki and Persian are spoken in the district. Urdu is commonly spoken by all ethnic groups. Pushto, Brahui and Persian are other regional languages, widely spoken in the district.

Nature and Extent of Migration

Every year nomads from Afghanistan, along with their livestock, migrate into the rural areas of district Quetta. They normally stay in Kuchlak, Panjapi and Hanna valley. They stay for some time in their camps (kizhedi) and with the beginning of winter in Quetta they move towards warmer areas like Sibi and Jacobabad. In the following summer they return to their homes, using the same route. It has been observed that they normally extend their stay at those places, where grazing facilities are easily available. Their migration is of transitionary nature. They travel along with their families and livestock. Two types of large scale migration have been witnessed during the 1980’s. The first type of migration was associated with the influx of Afghan refugees in Balochistan. Their registered number was 375,427 and they were residing in 12 camps, one of them was in Punjpai (Quetta). Simultaneously, a large number of unregistered refugees also found their way into the district. Due to similar cultural background (language, religion, dress, social customs etc) they were easily accepted and they intermingled with the locals. There is ample evidence that most of the refugees have permanently settled in the district. They have integrated in different occupations / sectors. Indeed, they have become a part and parcel of the existing society. The second type of migration has been caused mainly by economic factors, although social and psychological factors can also be taken into account.

Poverty and the lack of economic opportunities have pushed labour from the rural areas while attraction of urban areas (job opportunities and opportunities for education, marriage, the attraction of the bright lights) pulled labourers to the town. Thus it can be hypothesized that net rural - urban migration is a function of rural - urban income differentials, taking into account the probability of getting a job in the urban areas.

Even in 1981, when the spread effect of migration on urban areas was minimum, the ratio of urban population was highest in Quetta district (74.8%). Now, the absence of data makes it difficult to assess the magnitude of the problem and its implications.

Further seasonal migration also takes place from the warmer areas into Quetta during summer and from Quetta to warmer areas in winter.

There is no major feud in district Quetta, therefore, migration due to this reason does not occure. Large scale migration was witnessed during early 1980’s, when Afghan refugees entered the district. Their registered number in the district was more than 156 thousand. A large number of un-registered refugees also found their way into the district. It is believed that most of the registered refugees have repatriated while most of the un-registered have settled in the district.

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